Long Bets: The arena for accountable predictions

Thanks to Kyle from UC Davis for submitting this interesting site. From an initial glance, I have to say I have more respect for short-term predictions than those predicting events a hundred years from now but perhaps I’m being unfair. Nostrodamus made many far-reaching predictions but also many of them were verified in his lifetime, which would strengthen his credibility if it’s true. The idea behind this site is great though. One, for example, predicts that by a certain year, 50% of students wilI have taken a class on how to avoid a robot attack!


The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes.

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